2026 will be a decisive year for the balance of power in the House of Representatives, as voters go to the polls and decide whether Republicans hold on to their slim majority.

But before November, voters will have an opportunity in primaries to decide who their party’s nominee will be. In some cases, the primary will all but determine the general election winner.

Here are four House primaries you should be watching.

Texas’ 32nd Congressional District

Republicans are likely to make a pickup in Texas’ redrawn 32nd Congressional District, thanks to redistricting in 2025.

In the Republican primary, Jace Yarbrough, a conservative constitutional lawyer, has received President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Yarbrough is promising to be a new conservative firebrand in the House.

“We are in a cold civil war. It’s time to start acting like it, to go on offense, to take ground, to hold the high ground, and to advance the conservative principles we know are good for our communities,” Yarbrough said in a recent campaign video. 

Yarbrough faces off against a number of other Republicans, such as the pastor and 2024 presidential candidate Ryan Binkley, former Oklahoma congressional candidate Paul Bondar, and Darrell Day, who ran as the Republican nominee in 2024 for the 32nd District.

The primary will take place March 3.

New York’s 12th Congressional District

The decision of 78-year-old Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., not to seek reelection has created a packed free-for-all in the state’s 12th Congressional District, which covers much of Manhattan.

Some of the candidates are already well-known liberal figures.

Jack Schlossberg, the 33-year-old grandson of the late President John F. Kennedy, is running for Congress in NY-12, after years as an online left-wing influencer and provocateur.

There is also George Conway, the ex-husband of President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, who has joined the Democratic Party and is running for the Democrat nomination in the district. Conway co-founded The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump political action committee.

Cameron Kasky, a 25-year-old graduate of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, the site of the 2018 Parkland, Florida, shooting, is also running.

Kasky first gained prominence as part of the pro-gun control “Never Again MSD” group alongside David Hogg and others. Kasky supported Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign and has accused Israel of “genocide.”

The primary will be held on June 23.

Washington’s 4th

Rep. Dan Newhouse, R-Wash., one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Trump in the final week of his first term, is not seeking reelection in 2026.

In the Washington state primary system, every candidate, Democrat and Republican, competes in an initial blanket primary. Then, the top two candidates proceed to the general election.

This system has produced interesting results in the past.

In 2024, Newhouse’s firebrand, Trump-endorsed opponent Jerrod Sessler, beat the incumbent by almost 10 percentage points in the blanket primary. Then, in the general election, Newhouse beat Sessler by under six points.

Sessler, a former NASCAR driver, is running again in 2026. 

Also competing in the blanket primary as Republicans are state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney. John Duresky, a retired Air Force major, is the only Democrat who has filed to run. For decades, the district has been reliably Republican. 

The primary will take place on Aug. 4.

Kentucky’s 4th

Trump has repeatedly made clear he wants Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., out of Congress.

To achieve this goal, he has endorsed Ed Gallrein, a farmer and veteran, against Massie in the 4th Congressional District’s primary.

Massie has, for 13 years, been a consistent “no” on many types of legislation: opposing hemp regulation, military force without congressional approval, and omnibus spending packages.

Massie has been a headache for Trump’s agenda in Congress, even though he has described Trump as “probably the best president we’ve had in my lifetime.”

Massie was one of just two House Republicans to vote against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July, arguing it would increase the deficit. 

Additionally, Massie introduced the Epstein Files Transparency Act, legislation that compelled the Department of Justice to release millions of documents on the now-deceased convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Massie has received the endorsement of Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., a conservative with a similarly stubborn libertarian streak. 

However, Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., who is running to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, has endorsed Massie’s opponent.

The 2026 primary will be a major test of Massie’s durability in the Trump era. The Republican primary will take place on May 19.

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